Forecast
Time series forecasting with Prophet
What is the Forecast?
The Forecast is a service that predicts future values based on your data history. It's like having a crystal ball for your business!
You provide your past data (sales, revenue, traffic, etc.) and the system automatically calculates how much you can expect in the coming days, weeks, or months.
Usage examples:
- • Forecast next month's sales to plan inventory
- • Estimate future revenue for financial planning
- • Anticipate demand for products or services
- • Project growth in visits to the website or app
Quick Start
- 1. Prepare your data in CSV or Excel format with two columns: date and value
- 2. Upload the file to the upload page
- 3. Set up the analysis parameters (frequency, periods, seasonality)
- 4. Please wait for processing (usually 2-5 minutes)
- 5. Visualize the generated graphs and metrics
How to organize your data
Organize your data in an Excel or CSV spreadsheet with two columns:
Column 1: Data
When did it happen? For example: 01/01/2023, 03/15/2024
Column 2: Value
How much was it? For example: 1500, 2300, 1890
Sales spreadsheet example:
| data | vendas |
|---|---|
| 01/01/2024 | 1500 |
| 02/01/2024 | 1620 |
| 03/01/2024 | 1480 |
| 04/01/2024 | 1750 |
💡 Tip: You can use any names for the columns. It can be 'data_venda' and 'total', or 'dia' and 'receita'. The important thing is to have one column with dates and another with numbers.
Forecast Settings
Date column name
What is the name of the column that contains the dates in your spreadsheet?
Example:
data
Column name of values
What is the name of the column that contains the numbers you want to predict?
Example:
vendas
Frequency
How often do you record the data?
How many periods to forecast
How far into the future do you want to predict?
Examples:
- • If your data is monthly and you want to forecast 1 year: enter 12
- • If your data is daily and you want to forecast 30 days: enter 30
- • If your data is weekly and you want to forecast 8 weeks: enter 8
Recurrent patterns
Do your data have variations that repeat regularly?
Weekly standard
Example: lower sales on Sundays, higher on Fridays
Annual standard
Example: higher sales in December (Christmas), lower in January
Holidays
The system can take into account the impact of your country's holidays on the forecast.
Examples:
- • BR = Brazil
- • US = United States
- • PT = Portugal
Understanding the results
After processing your data, you will receive graphs that show not only the forecast but also the patterns found in your data.
Main Chart - Your Forecast
Black dots
These are the data you submitted. What has already happened in the past.
Blue line
It is the forecast. What the system believes will happen in the future.
Light blue area
Shows the margin of error. The actual value may vary within this area.
Other Charts - Patterns Found
Overall Trend
Shows whether your numbers are growing, declining, or remaining stable over time.
Example: your sales have grown 10% per month over the last 6 months
Standard of the Year
Shows in which months your values tend to be higher or lower.
Example: sales always go up in December and drop in January
Pattern of the Week
Shows on which days of the week your values tend to be higher or lower.
Example: sales are higher on Fridays and lower on Sundays
Impact of Holidays
Shows how holidays affect your numbers.
Example: sales drop 20% during Christmas and New Year's
⚠️ Important: The forecast is based on past patterns. If something changes significantly in the future (new competition, market shift, economic crisis), the results may be different.
Video Tutorials
Complete Tutorial - Forecast
How to Interpret Results
Need help? Contact us: contato@grabatus.com