Demonstration
Ad A or Ad B?
Imagine you have two ads running on Instagram:
Campaign running for
1 days
Data is being collected...
Static photo
Product + white background
Dynamic video
Customer testimonial
Which one converts more? See how the data responds:
Data organized in Excel
Campaign data (impressions, clicks, conversions) is exported and organized into an Excel spreadsheet for statistical analysis.
Now we apply Bayesian analysis to the data:
The raw data of each ad
This chart shows how conversions are distributed. You can clearly see that Ad B (red) is on the right, indicating higher conversion values.
✓ Decision: If the curves are well separated, you already have strong evidence of difference.
What is the average conversion rate of each?
Here you can accurately see where the conversion average of each ad stands. The separation between the curves shows the real difference in performance.
✓ Decision: The further apart the averages, the more confidence you have in migrating the budget.
Which ad is more consistent?
This chart shows the variability of each ad. A highly variable ad can have great days and terrible days. You want predictability.
✓ Decision: Less variation = more predictable results = less budget risk.
How much more does B convert?
Absolute difference: if A converts R$80 and B converts R$95, the difference is R$15.
✓ Decision: Calculate how much $ you earn by migrating 100% of the budget to B.
How many % more does B perform?
Percentage ratio: if B converts 18% more, you multiply your ROI by 1.18x.
✓ Decision: This is the lift you gain by choosing the winner.
Are A and B correlated?
If the points are above the diagonal line, B is always better than A. If they are on the line, they are equal.
✓ Decision: Points above the line = B is superior in almost all scenarios.
Where are you losing money
Every real invested in the wrong ad is money thrown away.
Wasted budget
Dividing 50/50 between two ads when one converts 30% less means that half of the budget is being wasted.
Lost time
Waiting months for statistical certainty while the competitor has already optimized and is profiting more.
Decisions based on guesswork
Choose which ad to invest in based on personal opinion instead of concrete data.
Why Bayesian
Invest in the winning creative
Instead of waiting months for 'statistical significance', you discover in days: 'Ad B has a 94% chance of converting better'. Throw your entire budget at it and maximize ROI.
Decisions in days, not months
See in real time which variant is winning. Cut the loser before spending more.
Direct ROI
If B converts 15% more, you know exactly how much money you make by migrating 100% of the budget to it.
Simple to understand
'94% chance of being better' makes sense. 'p-value < 0.05' does not.
Stop wasting money
Discover which creative generates more ROI. Free. Results in minutes.